A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
