Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
